The 35% undervaluation of Diversey Holdings, Ltd. (NASDAQ: DSEY) an opportunity?
Today we are going to review a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Diversey Holdings, Ltd. (NASDAQ: DSEY) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows, then discounting them to today’s value. To this end, we will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but it’s actually quite simple!
Remember, however, that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a little more about intrinsic value should read the Simply Wall St.
The calculation
We use the 2-step growth model, which simply means that we take into account two stages of business growth. In the initial period, the business can have a higher growth rate, and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first step, we have to estimate the cash flow of the business over the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
In general, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF ($, Millions) | US $ 189.3 million | US $ 263.0 million | US $ 338.0 million | US $ 394.2 million | US $ 442.4 million | US $ 482.9 million | US $ 516.7 million | US $ 545.0 million | US $ 569.2 million | US $ 590.2 million |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x4 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 16.63% | Est @ 12.23% | Est @ 9.15% | Is 6.99% | Est @ 5.48% | East @ 4.43% | East @ 3.69% |
Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 7.7% | US $ 176 | US $ 227 | US $ 271 | US $ 293 | US $ 306 | $ 310 | US $ 308 | US $ 302 | US $ 293 | US $ 282 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = 2.8 billion US dollars
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 590 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.7% – 2.0%) = US $ 11 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= US $ 11 billion ÷ (1 + 7.7%)^{ten}= US $ 5.0 billion
Total value, or net worth, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is $ 7.8 billion. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US $ 16.9, the company looks fairly good value at a 35% discount from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS: DSEY Discounted Cash Flow October 23, 2021
Important assumptions
We would like to stress that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Diversey Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. In this calculation, we used 7.7%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.169. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
To move on :
While important, calculating DCF shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when looking for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Preferably, you would apply different cases and assumptions and see their impact on the valuation of the business. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. What is the reason why the stock price is below intrinsic value? For Diversey Holdings, we’ve put together three other factors you should take a closer look at:
- Risks: We think you should evaluate the 1 warning sign for Diversey Holdings we reported before making an investment in the business.
- Future benefits: How does DSEY’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for each NASDAQGS share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, do a search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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