Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) Shares May Be 29% Below Their Embedded Value Estimate
Today we are going to review a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company’s future cash flow. and discounting them to their present value. To this end, we will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t be put off by the lingo, the math is actually pretty straightforward.
We generally believe that the value of a business is the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is only one evaluation measure among many, and it is not without its flaws. For those who are passionate about equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be something of interest to you.
Is Simply Good Foods valued enough?
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually the first stage is higher growth and the second stage is lower growth stage. In the first step, we need to estimate the cash flow of the business over the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
In general, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Leverage FCF ($, Millions)||US $ 143.9 million||$ 152.8 million||US $ 162.0 million||US $ 182.0 million||US $ 192.9 million||US $ 202.1 million||210.1 million US dollars||US $ 217.2 million||US $ 223.6 million||US $ 229.6 million|
|Source of estimated growth rate||Analyst x5||Analyst x4||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Is 5.99%||Est @ 4.79%||Est @ 3.95%||East @ 3.36%||Est @ 2.95%||East @ 2.66%|
|Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 5.8%||136 USD||US $ 137||US $ 137||145 USD||US $ 146||144 USD||$ 142||US $ 139||135 USD||US $ 131|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 1.4 billion
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 5.8%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 230 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (5.8% – 2.0%) = US $ 6.2 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= US $ 6.2 billion ÷ (1 + 5.8%)ten= US $ 3.5 billion
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the final present value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is $ 4.9 billion. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of US $ 36.7, the company appears to be slightly undervalued with a 29% discount from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
NasdaqCM: SMPL Discounted Cash Flow July 19, 2021
Now, the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we consider Simply Good Foods as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. . In this calculation, we used 5.8%, which is based on a leverage beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta from globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
While important, calculating DCF shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when looking for a business. DCF models are not the alpha and omega of investment valuation. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. Why is intrinsic value greater than the current share price? For Simply Good Foods, we’ve put together three relevant things you should consider:
- Risks: For example, we discovered 2 warning signs for Simply Good Foods (1 shouldn’t be ignored!) Which you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future benefits: How does SMPL’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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