POLL-China, December New Yuan Loans Down, Hit 2020 Record
Reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = CNMSM2% 3DECI money supply survey data
Reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = CNNYL% 3DECI survey data on new loans
New loans in December at 1.22 trillion yuan compared to 1.43 trillion yuan in November
Growth of the money supply in December at 10.5% year-on-year against 10.7% in November
Dec TSF seen at 2.20 trillion yuan from 2.13 trillion yuan in November
Loans, money supply data due January 10-15
BEIJING, January 8 (Reuters) – New bank loans in China likely fell in December, but loans for all of 2020 still set new record, Reuters poll finds Friday, while the central bank maintained its political support for the economy amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
It is estimated that Chinese banks issued 1.22 trillion yuan ($ 188.72 billion) in new net loans in yuan last month, up from 1.43 trillion yuan in November, according to the median estimate of the survey of 23 economists.
If the December data, expected in the coming week, is as expected, total new loans in 2020 would hit a record 19.6 trillion yuan, up 16.6% from 16.6%. 81 trillion yuan in 2019 – the previous record.
The central bank of China has implemented a series of measures, including cuts in interest rates and reserve rates since early 2020 to support the economy affected by the virus. But he moved to a more stable position in the last months and kept its key rate, the prime lending rate, unchanged since May.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will reduce its support for the economy in 2021 and slow credit growth, but fears of derailing the recovery from a pandemic-induced recession and defaults will likely keep it from fizzling out. tighten up anytime soon, political sources mentioned.
The PBOC is poised to keep its policy rate unchanged for the next several months while leading a steady slowdown in credit expansion in 2021, the three sources said.
The growth of the broad money supply M2 in December was 10.5%, compared to 10.7% the previous month.
The annual outstanding loan in yuan is expected to increase by 12.8% in December, as in November.
Beijing has relied more on fiscal stimulus to weather the slowdown, cutting taxes and issuing local government bonds to fund infrastructure projects.
Any acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost Total Social Finance (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity. Annual growth in TSF outstandings slowed to 13.6% in November from a 34-month high of 13.7% in October.
In December, the TSF is expected to reach 2.20 trillion yuan, compared to 2.13 trillion yuan in November.
Chinese policymakers are set to set an average annual economic growth target of around 5% for the next five years, in the lower end of ranges previously seen as global risks clouding the outlook, political sources said.
($ 1 = 6.4647 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting by Judy Hua and Kevin Yao; editing by Uttaresh.V)
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