Ontex Group NV (EBR: ONTEX) shares could be 26% higher than their intrinsic value estimate
Does the June price of Ontex Group NV (EBR: ONTEX) share reflect its true value? Today, we’re going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to do this is to use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Patterns like these may seem beyond a layman’s comprehension, but they are fairly easy to follow.
We draw your attention to the fact that there are many ways to assess a business and, like DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you would like to know more about discounted cash flow, the rationale for this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St.
See our latest analysis for Ontex Group
The calculation
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually the first stage is higher growth and the second stage is lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
In general, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
Leverage FCF (€, Millions) | € 73.7m | € 69.3m | 71.5 million euros | € 67.4m | € 64.9m | € 63.5m | € 62.8m | 62.5 million euros | 62.5 million euros | € 62.8m |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x4 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x5 | Is @ -5.74% | Is @ -3.64% | Est @ -2.18% | Is @ -1.15% | East @ -0.44% | Is 0.07% | Is @ 0.42% |
Present value (€, Millions) discounted @ 9.8% | € 67.1 | € 57.5 | € 54.0 | € 46.4 | € 40.7 | € 36.3 | € 32.7 | € 29.6 | € 27.0 | € 24.7 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = 416 M €
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2030} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = € 63m × (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (9.8% – 1.2%) = € 745m
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= € 745m ÷ (1 + 9.8%)^{ten}= 293 M €
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the Total Equity Value, which in this case is € 709m. The last step is then to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current price of € 11.0, the company appears to be slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember, however, that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view the Ontex Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. In this calculation, we used 9.8%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.608. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
To move on :
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and ideally, it won’t be the only piece of analysis you look at for a business. It is not possible to achieve a rock-solid valuation with a DCF model. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. Why is intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Ontex Group, we’ve compiled three essentials that you need to assess:
- Risks: Take risks, for example – Ontex Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn’t suit us very well) we think you should be aware of.
- Future benefits: How does ONTEX’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Belgian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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