Does this assessment of James Halstead plc (LON:JHD) imply that investors are paying too much?
In this article, we will estimate the intrinsic value of James Halstead plc (LON:JHD) by taking the company’s expected future cash flows and discounting them to present value. One way to do this is to use the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it’s not too hard to follow, as you’ll see in our example!
We generally believe that the value of a company is the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one of many evaluation metrics, and it is not without its flaws. If you want to know more about discounted cash flow, the rationale for this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis template.
See our latest analysis for James Halstead
Is James Halstead well valued?
We use what is called a 2-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of company cash flow growth rates. Generally, the first stage is a higher growth phase and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start, we need to estimate the cash flows for the next ten years. Wherever possible, we use analysts’ estimates, but where these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the latest estimate or reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow more in early years than in later years.
Generally, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
Estimated free cash flow (FCF) over 10 years
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leveraged FCF (£, millions) | UK£28.0m | UK£44.6m | UK£45.1m | UK£44.9m | UK£44.9m | UK£45.1m | UK£45.3m | UK£45.5m | UK£45.8m | UK£46.2m |
Growth rate estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Is @ -0.37% | Is 0.01% | Is at 0.27% | Is at 0.45% | Is at 0.58% | Is at 0.67% | Is at 0.73% |
Present value (in millions of pounds sterling) discounted at 6.3% | UK£26.3 | UK£39.5 | UK£37.5 | UK£35.2 | UK£33.1 | UK£31.2 | UK£29.5 | UK£27.9 | UK£26.4 | UK£25.0 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year discounted cash flow (PVCF) = UK £311 million
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.9%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to present value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = £46 million × (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (6.3%–0.9%) = £858 million
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= UK£858m÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)^{ten}= UK £466 million
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the total equity value, which in this case is £777m. In the last step, we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£2.5, the company looks potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
The hypotheses
Now, the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flows. If you disagree with these results, try the math yourself and play around with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we consider James Halstead to be a potential shareholder, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 6.3%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.121. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Look forward:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of crafting your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output may be very different. Why is intrinsic value lower than the current stock price? For James Halstead, we’ve put together three key aspects you need to assess:
- Risks: For this purpose, you must know the 1 warning sign we spotted with James Halstead.
- Future earnings: How does JHD’s growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other high-quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality actions to get an idea of what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every UK stock daily, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock, just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.