Calculation of the fair value of Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE: PAG)
Today we’re going to review one way to estimate the intrinsic value of Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE: PAG) by taking the company’s future cash flow forecasts and discounting them to their present value. . To this end, we will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There really isn’t much to it, although it might seem quite complex.
There are many ways that businesses can be assessed, so we would like to point out that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. If you want to know more about discounted cash flow, the rationale for this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St.
We use the 2-step growth model, which simply means that we take into account two stages of business growth. During the initial period, the business can have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first step, we have to estimate the cash flow of the business over the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we discount the value of those future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Leverage FCF ($, Millions)||US $ 425.4 million||US $ 308.1 million||US $ 401.0 million||US $ 625.2 million||US $ 666.0 million||US $ 697.1 million||US $ 724.0 million||$ 747.9 million||US $ 769.7 million||US $ 790.0 million|
|Source of growth rate estimate||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||East @ 4.67%||Est @ 3.86%||Is 3.3%||Est @ 2.91%||East @ 2.63%|
|Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 11%||$ 382||US $ 248||US $ 290||US $ 406||$ 388||$ 364||US $ 339||$ 315||291 USD||US $ 268|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 3.3 billion
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which takes into account all future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 790 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (11% to 2.0%) = US $ 8.5 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= US $ 8.5b ÷ (1 + 11%)ten= US $ 2.9 billion
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the final present value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is US $ 6.2 billion. In the last step, we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of US $ 72.6, the company appears to be roughly at fair value at a 5.1% discount to the current stock price. Remember, however, that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
NYSE: PAG Discounted Cash Flow June 21, 2021
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Penske Automotive Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. . In this calculation, we used 11%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 2,000. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
To move on :
While a business valuation is important, ideally it won’t be the only piece of analysis you will look at for a business. DCF models are not the alpha and omega of investment valuation. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. For Penske Automotive Group, we’ve compiled three more things you should check out:
- Risks: As an example, we have found 4 warning signs for Penske Automotive Group that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future benefits: How does PAG’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you might not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for every NYSE share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, do a search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
Do you have any feedback on this item? Are you worried about the content? Get in touch with us directly. You can also send an email to the editorial team (at) simplywallst.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.