Calculation of the fair value of LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: RAMP)
Today we’re going to review one way to estimate the intrinsic value of LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: RAMP) by taking the company’s future cash flow forecasts and discounting them to the value of today. Our analysis will use the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. There really isn’t much to do, although it might seem quite complex.
Remember, however, that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to know more about discounted cash flow, the rationale for this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St.
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The method
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually the first stage is higher growth and the second stage is lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flow. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF ($, Millions) | US $ 10.9 million | US $ 24.2 million | 58.9 million US dollars | US $ 90.9 million | US $ 126.0 million | US $ 160.8 million | US $ 192.8 million | US $ 220.8 million | US $ 244.6 million | US $ 264.6 million |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x4 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Is 54.3% | East @ 38.6% | Est @ 27.62% | Est @ 19.93% | Est @ 14.55% | Est @ 10.78% | Est @ 8.14% |
Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 7.1% | $ 10.2 | US $ 21.1 | US $ 48.0 | US $ 69.2 | $ 89.6 | 107 USD | 120 USD | 128 USD | 132 USD | US $ 134 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 858 million
It is now a matter of calculating the Terminal Value, which takes into account all future cash flows after this ten-year period. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 265 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.1% to 2.0%) = US $ 5.3 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= US $ 5.3 billion ÷ (1 + 7.1%)^{ten}= US $ 2.7 billion
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the final present value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is US $ 3.5 billion. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. From the current price of US $ 49.0, the company appears to be roughly at fair value at a discount of 6.2% from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view LiveRamp Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. In this calculation, we used 7.1%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.074. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta from globally comparable companies, with a limit imposed between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking forward:
While valuing a business is important, it’s just one of the many factors you need to assess for a business. It is not possible to achieve a rock-solid valuation with a DCF model. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. For LiveRamp Holdings, you need to explore three relevant factors:
- Risks: Concrete example, we have spotted 2 warning signs for LiveRamp Holdings you must be aware.
- Future benefits: How does RAMP’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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