Calculation of the fair value of Benefit Systems SA (WSE: BFT)
Does the Benefit Systems SA (WSE: BFT) share price in November reflect its true value? Today, we’re going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by projecting its future cash flows, then discounting them to today’s value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There really isn’t much to do, although it might seem quite complex.
Remember, however, that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St.
Check out our latest analysis for Benefit Systems
Step by step in the calculation
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually, the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth stage. In the first step, we need to estimate the cash flow of the business over the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
In general, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF (PLN, Millions) | zł33.5m | zł105.2m | zł127.0 m | zł145.7m | 159.7 m | zł171.6m | zł181.8m | zł190.8m | 198.8 m | z206.1 m |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | East @ 9.58% | Est @ 7.46% | Est @ 5.97% | Est @ 4.92% | Is 4.19% | East @ 3.68% |
Present value (PLN, millions) discounted at 8.3% | zł30.9 | 89.7 z | zł100 | zł106 | zł107 | zł107 | zł104 | zł101 | zł97.2 | zł93.1 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = zł936m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10 year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first step. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = zł206m × (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (8.3% – 2.5%) = zł3.7b
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= zł3.7b ÷ (1 + 8.3%)^{ten}= zł1.7b
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is zł2.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of 736z, the company appears to be roughly at fair value with an 18% discount from where the stock price is currently trading. Remember, however, that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
The hypotheses
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Benefit Systems as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 8.3%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.135. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Next steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a business. DCF models are not the alpha and omega of investment valuation. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. For benefit systems, there are three essential elements you should research further:
- Risks: For example, we have identified 2 warning signs for Benefit Systems of which you should be aware.
- Future benefits: How does BFT’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you might not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Polish stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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