An intrinsic calculation for DaVita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) suggests it’s 44% undervalued
Does the September share price for DaVita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) reflect its true value? Today we’re going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by taking expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. To this end, we will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it’s not too hard to follow, as you will see in our example!
We generally think of a business’s value as the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is only one evaluation measure among many, and it is not without its flaws. If you would like to know more about discounted cash flow, the rationale for this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St.
Crunch the numbers
We are going to use a two-step DCF model, which, as the name suggests, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “steady growth”. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF ($, Millions) | US $ 1.17 billion | US $ 1.18 billion | US $ 1.23 billion | US $ 1.30 billion | US $ 1.34 billion | US $ 1.38 billion | US $ 1.41 billion | US $ 1.44 billion | US $ 1.48 billion | US $ 1.51 billion |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Is @ 3.14% | East @ 2.79% | Is 2.55% | East @ 2.38% | East @ 2.27% | Is @ 2.18% |
Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 7.5% | US $ 1.1k | US $ 1.0k | US $ 991 | US $ 971 | US $ 931 | 890 USD | $ 849 | US $ 809 | US $ 769 | US $ 731 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 9.1 billion
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 7.5%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 1.5B × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.5% – 2.0%) = US $ 28B
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= US $ 28 billion ÷ (1 + 7.5%)^{ten}= US $ 14 billion
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the final present value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is US $ 23 billion. The last step is then to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US $ 120, the company appears to be quite undervalued with a 44% discount from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
NYSE: DVA Discounted Cash Flow September 22, 2021
Important assumptions
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view DaVita as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 7.5%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.170. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta from globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking forward:
While important, calculating DCF ideally won’t be the only piece of analysis you’ll look at for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Preferably, you would apply different cases and assumptions and see their impact on the valuation of the business. If a business grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output can be very different. Why is intrinsic value greater than the current share price? For DaVita, you need to take into account three other aspects:
- Risks: Take risks, for example – DaVita has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware.
- Future benefits: How does DVA’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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