An intrinsic calculation for Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) suggests it is 33% undervalued
In this article, we will estimate the intrinsic value of Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) by taking expected future cash flows and discounting them to the present value. Our analysis will use the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. This may sound complicated, but it’s actually quite simple!
Remember though that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business and a DCF is just one method. For those who are passionate about stock analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may interest you.
Check out our latest analysis for Beach Energy
Is Beach Energy Fairly Valued?
We use what is called a 2-stage model, which simply means that we have two different periods of company cash flow growth rates. Generally, the first stage is a higher growth phase and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start, we need to estimate the cash flows for the next ten years. Wherever possible, we use analysts’ estimates, but where these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the latest estimate or reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow more in early years than in later years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
10-Year Free Cash Flow (FCF) Forecast
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leveraged FCF (A$, Millions) | A$126.0 million | A$133.3 million | A$367.0 million | A$373.6 million | A$380.2 million | A$387.1 million | A$394.0 million | A$401.1 million | A$408.3 million | A$415.6 million |
Growth rate estimate Source | Analyst x6 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x4 | Is at 1.79% | Is at 1.79% | Is at 1.79% | Is at 1.8% | Is at 1.8% | Is at 1.8% | Is at 1.8% |
Present value (A$, millions) discounted at 7.1% | AU$118 | AU$116 | AU$299 | AU$284 | $270 | AU$257 | AU$244 | AU$232 | $220 | AU$209 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year discounted cash flow (PVCF) = AU$2.2 billion
The second stage is also known as the terminal value, it is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to present value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$416 million × (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (7.1%–1.8%) = AU$8.0 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= AU$8.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)^{ten}= AU$4.0 billion
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is A$6.3 billion. In the last step, we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.8, the company appears to be pretty good value at a 33% discount to the current share price. The assumptions of any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it’s best to consider this as a rough estimate, not accurate down to the last penny.
Important assumptions
The above calculation is highly dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you disagree with these results, try the math yourself and play around with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Beach Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which factors in debt. In this calculation, we used 7.1%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.249. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Next steps:
While a business valuation is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric to consider when researching a business. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output may be very different. Why is the stock price below intrinsic value? For Beach Energy, there are three key aspects you need to explore:
- Financial health: Does BPT have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors such as leverage and risk.
- Future earnings: How does BPT’s growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other high-quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality actions to get an idea of what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock daily, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock, just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.