Amedisys, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMED) intrinsic value is potentially 41% higher than its share price
In this article, we’ll estimate the intrinsic value of Amedisys, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMED) by taking expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won’t be able to figure it out, read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.
There are many ways businesses can be assessed, so we would like to point out that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. For those who are passionate about equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be something of interest to you.
Is Amedisys valued enough?
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually the first stage is higher growth and the second stage is lower growth stage. In the first step, we need to estimate the cash flow of the business over the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
In general, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF ($, Millions) | US $ 255.6 million | 280.5 million US dollars | US $ 288.2 million | US $ 295.5 million | US $ 302.5 million | US $ 309.4 million | 316.1 million US dollars | US $ 322.8 million | US $ 329.5 million | US $ 336.3 million |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x4 | Analyst x2 | East @ 2.76% | Is 2.53% | East @ 2.37% | Is @ 2.25% | Is @ 2.18% | Is @ 2.12% | East @ 2.08% | East @ 2.05% |
Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 5.9% | US $ 241 | US $ 250 | US $ 243 | $ 235 | US $ 227 | US $ 219 | US $ 212 | $ 204 | 197 USD | 190 USD |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 2.2 billion
It is now a matter of calculating the Terminal Value, which takes into account all future cash flows after this ten-year period. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 5.9%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 336 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (5.9% to 2.0%) = US $ 8.8 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= US $ 8.8 billion ÷ (1 + 5.9%)^{ten}= US $ 5.0 billion
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the final present value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is $ 7.2 billion. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of US $ 156, the company appears to be slightly undervalued with a 29% discount from the current share price. Remember, however, that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
NasdaqGS: AMED Discounted Cash Flow September 28, 2021
The hypotheses
Now, the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Amedisys as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 5.9%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 0.827. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta from globally comparable companies, with a limit imposed between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking forward:
While important, calculating DCF shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when looking for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. Can we understand why the company trades at a discount to its intrinsic value? For Amedisys, we have put together three additional factors that you should take a closer look at:
- Risks: Consider, for example, the ever-present specter of investment risk. We have identified 2 warning signs with Amedisys, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
- Management: Have insiders increased their shares to take advantage of market sentiment about AMED’s future prospects? Check out our management and board analysis with information on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you might not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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