Aker Solutions ASA (OB: AKSO) shares could be 36% lower than their intrinsic value estimate
In this article, we’ll estimate the intrinsic value of Aker Solutions ASA (OB: AKSO) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to do this is to use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won’t be able to figure it out, read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.
There are many ways businesses can be assessed, so we would like to point out that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. Anyone interested in learning a little more about intrinsic value should read the Simply Wall St.
See our latest review for Aker Solutions
We are going to use a two-step DCF model, which, as the name suggests, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “steady growth”. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we discount the value of those future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Leverage FCF (NOK, Millions)||kr675.0m||954.3m kr||966.0 kr||kr1.14b||kr1.27b||1.37 kr||1.45 kr||kr1.52b||kr1.57b||1.62 kr|
|Source of growth rate estimate||Analyst x4||Analyst x4||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 10.97%||Est @ 8.05%||Est @ 6.01%||Is 4.58%||Is @ 3.58%||East @ 2.88%|
|Present value (NOK, millions) discounted at 11%||610 kr||779 kr||kr712||762 kr||764 kr||746 kr||kr714||kr675||kr631||587 kr|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = kr7.0b
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.2%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year âgrowthâ period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 Ã (1 + g) Ã· (r – g) = kr1.6b Ã (1 + 1.2%) Ã· (11% – 1.2%) = kr17b
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= kr17b Ã· (1 + 11%)ten= kr6.3b
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is kr13b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of 17.4 kr, the company appears to be quite undervalued with a 36% discount from the current share price. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it’s best to take this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last penny.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Aker Solutions as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. In this calculation, we used 11%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 2,000. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and ideally, it won’t be the only piece of analysis you will look at for a business. DCF models are not the ultimate solution for investment valuation. Preferably, you would apply different cases and assumptions and see their impact on the valuation of the business. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. What is the reason why the stock price is below intrinsic value? For Aker Solutions, we have compiled three relevant things that you should take a closer look at:
- Risks: For example, we have identified 1 warning sign for Aker Solutions that you should be aware of.
- Management: Have insiders increased their shares to take advantage of market sentiment about AKSO’s future prospects? Check out our management and board analysis with information on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you might not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Norwegian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
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