A look at the intrinsic value of Kaman Corporation (NYSE: KAMN)
How far is Kaman Corporation (NYSE: KAMN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll examine whether the stock price is fair by taking the company’s expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will therefore take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There really isn’t much to do, although it might seem quite complex.
We generally believe that the value of a business is the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is only one evaluation measure among many, and it is not without its flaws. For those who are learning equity analysis in depth, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be of interest to you.
The method
We are going to use a two-step DCF model which, as the name suggests, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “steady growth”. First, we need to estimate the cash flow of the business over the next ten years. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or the last reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their withdrawal rate, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in the later years.
Typically, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) forecast
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
Levered FCF ($, million) | $ 10.0 million | $ 56.0 million | $ 62.0 million | $ 66.4 million | $ 70.2 million | $ 73.4 million | 76.2 million USD | 78.7 million USD | $ 80.9 million | 83.1 million USD |
Source of estimated growth rate | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est at 7.17% | Is 5.63% | Is 4.55% | Is 3.8% | Is at 3.27% | Is 2.9% | Is 2.64% |
Present value ($, millions) discounted at 7.3% | $ 9.3 | $ 48.6 | $ 50.1 | $ 50.1 | $ 49.3 | $ 48.0 | US $ 46.4 | US $ 44.7 | $ 42.8 | $ 40.9 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flow (PVCF) = 430 million USD
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10 year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first step. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to present value, using a cost of equity of 7.3%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2030} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $ 83 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.3% – 2.0%) = $ 1.6 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= 1.6 billion USD ÷ (1 + 7.3%)^{ten}= 790 million USD
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is US $ 1.2 billion. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US $ 51.8, the company is around fair value at the time of writing. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
NYSE: KAMN Discounted Cash Flow April 22, 2021
Important assumptions
We draw your attention to the fact that the most important data for a discounted cash flow is the discount rate and, of course, the actual cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Kaman as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 7.3%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.012. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock, relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking forward:
While important, the DCF calculation is just one of the many factors you need to assess for a business. It is not possible to obtain an infallible valuation with a DCF model. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. For Kaman, there are three more things you should explore:
- Risks: To this end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we spotted with Kaman.
- Future income: How does KAMN’s growth rate compare to its peers and to the market in general? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus count for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity, and good past performance are essential to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative information. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
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