A look at the fair value of Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ)
Today we’re going to go over one way to estimate the intrinsic value of Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won’t be able to figure it out, read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.
There are many ways that businesses can be assessed, so we would like to point out that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. Anyone interested in learning a little more about intrinsic value should read the Simply Wall St.
Is Zumiez valued enough?
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually, the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flow. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of the present value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
Leverage FCF ($, Millions) | US $ 94.0 million | 107.3 million US dollars | US $ 109.6 million | US $ 98.9 million | US $ 92.9 million | US $ 89.5 million | 87.8 million US dollars | US $ 87.1 million | US $ 87.2 million | 87.8 million US dollars |
Source of growth rate estimate | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Is @ -6.03% | Is @ -3.62% | Est @ -1.94% | East @ -0.76% | Is 0.07% | East @ 0.64% |
Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 8.5% | US $ 86.6 | US $ 91.2 | $ 85.8 | $ 71.3 | US $ 61.8 | US $ 54.9 | US $ 49.6 | US $ 45.4 | US $ 41.8 | US $ 38.8 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 627 million
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10 year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first step. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2030} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 88 million × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.5% to 2.0%) = US $ 1.4 billion
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= US $ 1.4 billion ÷ (1 + 8.5%)^{ten}= 608 million US dollars
Total value, or net worth, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is $ 1.2 billion. The last step is then to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. From the current share price of US $ 45.6, the company appears to be roughly at fair value with a 4.8% discount from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS: ZUMZ Discounted Cash Flow June 16, 2021
The hypotheses
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Zumiez as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 8.5%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.380. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta from globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking forward:
While valuing a business is important, it’s just one of the many factors you need to assess for a business. It is not possible to achieve a rock-solid valuation with a DCF model. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under / overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. For Zumiez, we’ve compiled three essential factors you should explore:
- Risks: Note that Zumiez shows 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of them is a bit disturbing …
- Future benefits: How does ZUMZ’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what else you might be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for each NASDAQGS share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, do a search here.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
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