A look at the fair value of NMDC Limited (NSE: NMDC)
How far is NMDC Limited (NSE:NMDC) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we will examine whether the stock price is fair by taking the company’s expected future cash flows and discounting them to the present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you can’t figure it out, just read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.
Remember though that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business and a DCF is just one method. For those who are passionate about stock analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may interest you.
Check out our latest analysis for NMDC
Is the NMDC correctly valued?
We use the 2-stage growth model, which simply means that we consider two stages of business growth. In the initial period, the company may have a higher growth rate, and the second stage is generally assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start, we need to estimate the cash flows for the next ten years. Wherever possible, we use analysts’ estimates, but where these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the latest estimate or reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow more in early years than in later years.
Generally, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
Estimated free cash flow (FCF) over 10 years
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leveraged FCF (₹, million) | ₹37.1 billion | ₹55.7 billion | ₹37.5 billion | ₹38.8b | ₹40.5 billion | ₹42.5 billion | ₹44.9b | ₹47.6 billion | ₹50.5 billion | ₹53.7 billion |
Growth rate estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Is at 3.43% | Is at 4.42% | Is at 5.11% | Is at 5.6% | Is at 5.94% | Is at 6.18% | Is at 6.34% |
Present value (₹, million) discounted at 14% | ₹32,600 | ₹43,100 | ₹25,500 | ₹23,200 | ₹21,300 | ₹19,700 | ₹18,300 | ₹17,000 | ₹15,900 | ₹14,900 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year discounted cash flow (PVCF) =₹231b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average 10-year government bond yield of 6.7%. We discount terminal cash flows to present value at a cost of equity of 14%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹54b × (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (14%–6.7%) = ₹823b
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= ₹823b÷ ( 1 + 14%)^{ten}=₹228b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is ₹459 billion. The final step is to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹168, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions of any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it’s best to consider this as a rough estimate, not accurate down to the last penny.
Important assumptions
The above calculation is highly dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you disagree with these results, try the math yourself and play around with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we consider NMDC as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 14%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.085. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Next steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it’s just one of many factors you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on the valuation. For the NMDC, we have compiled three fundamental elements that you should assess:
- Risks: Be aware that NMDC displays 2 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of them is potentially serious…
- Future earnings: How does NMDC’s growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are essential to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with strong trading fundamentals to see if there are any other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs an updated cash flow valuation for each NSEI stock each day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks, search here.
Feedback on this article? Concerned about content? Get in touch with us directly. You can also email the editorial team (at) Simplywallst.com.
This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.